«Ever
since, I’ve been asking travelers back from remote places what they
noticed out in the countryside. Their universal report: The world’s
villages are emptying out, everywhere. People are moving to cities
far more rapidly than most of us realize.
Increasing
urbanization is accelerating the economic development of the world
with remarkable speed. The consequences are going to be profound,
particularly for the institutions that serve people — government
agencies, corporations, and the creators of infrastructure. Although
a growing number of people have noticed the change, few civic and
corporate leaders are prepared to deal with it.
Demographically,
the next 50 years may be the most wrenching in human history. Massive
numbers of people are making massive changes. Having just experienced
the first doubling of world population in a single lifetime (from 3.3
billion in 1962 to 6.5 billion now), we now are discovering it is the
last doubling. Birthrates worldwide are dropping not only much faster
than expected, but much further. It used to be assumed that
birthrates would get down to the replacement rate of 2.1 children per
woman and level off, but in most places the birthrates continue to
decelerate with no bottom in sight. Meanwhile the “population
momentum” of the already born and their children will carry world
population to a peak of 7.5 to 9 billion around 2050 and then head
downward. (...) Just
as the population exploded upward exponentially when the birthrate
was above 2.1, it accelerates downward exponentially when it’s
below 2.1. Compound interest cuts both ways. Fewer children make
fewer children. »
City Planet, February 2006, in Strategy + Business